Secondary Lead Production Skyrockets in March 2025: A Confluence of New Capacities, Profits, and Resuming Smelters" [SMM Analysis]

Secondary lead production in March 2025 saw a significant increase, with a monthly rise of 94.34% and a yearly increase of 15.21% for crude lead, and a monthly rise of 110.48% and an 11.24% yearly increase for refined lead. The lead price in March was notably higher than in February, signaling a profitable period for secondary lead smelters, which led to increased production enthusiasm among smelting enterprises, with most increasing their output compared to February.

Additionally, new annual production capacities of approximately 500,000 tons were added in Jiangsu and Guizhou. New smelters in Jiangsu have been operational since March, while those in Guizhou began with a small amount of material in March, planning full-scale production for early April. Several large smelters in Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, and Ningxia, which had been under maintenance, resumed and stabilized their production in March. Many large and medium-sized smelters in Jiangxi, Hubei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia resumed production in late February and contributed significantly to the output in March.

Some enterprises experienced a slight decline in production due to environmental inspections, regulatory controls, and tight raw material inventories. Overall, the surge in secondary lead production in March was driven by good operational profits, the introduction of new capacities, the resumption and ramp-up of production in large and medium-sized smelters, reaching a high not seen in the past year and a half.

As we enter April, there are still plans to increase production from new capacities.Although most secondary lead smelters anticipate a tight supply of raw materials in April, they have not mentioned any plans to reduce production. Data suggests that secondary lead production in April will be roughly on par with March.

SMM advises that April is traditionally a low season for lead-acid battery consumption. If the purchasing intention of downstream battery manufacturers for lead ingots remains low, and if the scrap battery market has a low scrap volume combined with high secondary lead operation rates leading to increased reluctance among collectors to sell, there could be a potential for forced production cuts in secondary lead enterprises in the middle and late April.